If this is the age of information, why are so many people ignorant? Although the internet, for instance, technically allows unfettered access to information, it also allows censorship, propaganda, and just plain wrong information.

Do we need a new internet to fix this? One that can’t be tampered with? Maybe one with superintelligence that filters out the misinformation and replaces it with correct information? I don’t think so, because that leaves the underlying problem unfixed—people would fuck it up.

I see only one way out of this: The age of information must give way to the age of reason. It’s hard to see that happening, because people are naturally tempted by logical fallacies. We’re just not perfect reasoners.

But there’s something we can do called Bayesian inference. It seems that Bayesian inference is what we do when we think well. And when we don’t think well, we’re not doing it.

Bayesian inference is how you learned to walk and talk. And it’s how you came to trust the stuff that other people told you, because they seemed so reliable at first. But then the floodgates of misinformation opened for you.

How do you know when you can’t trust somebody? When they would have you infer that your own ability to infer things is faulty. That’s a logical contradiction—so don’t let them pressure you into believing it. Indeed, the only rational thing you can do is trust your own ability to reason. If you can do that, then your enormous potential as a thinker has become accessible. Otherwise, you’re the pawn of whoever is manipulating you.

You’ll make mistakes, but you’ll notice them if you think about it. You don’t have to be perfect to be incredible. Indeed, if you can learn to talk, then you’re a member of the cognitive elite of the universe. I know you understand what I’m saying. You have intelligence.

I think Bayesian inference is awesome. Am I telling you to just trust me? Do it because I say it’s good for you? No. I’m telling you to figure that shit out for yourself. Use your brain.

Still with me? Good. You can join the Bayesian conspiracy if you just pass this little test: Hit yourself in the head. Trust me. All the good Bayesians do it. You can only be a good Bayesian if your head hurts.